Hungary – Domestic and international macro -economic trends
- In 2011–2012 the impetus of the global economy slowed down. According to the IMF’s estimates global economy expanded by 3.2% in 2012, compared to 4.0% in 2011. The global growth was in great part due to the Asian countries. The global growth was narrowed by several factors, the processes were influenced unfavourably by the economic problems emerging in the Southern European countries, as well as the dry weather, striking the agriculture of the most important grain producing countries.
- Out of the national economies that mostly influence the global economic processes, the economic performance of the United States has expanded by 2.2, that of Japan by 1.9%. China, who occupies a more and more significant role in the global economy, experienced a 7.8% growth in GDP in 2012, less dynamic than in the previous two years.
- In 2012 the economy of the European Union, following a two-year growth, sank into recession: the output has decreased by 0.3%. The real economic effects of the euro zone’s debt crisis are substantially moderating the growth of the EU. Despite this fact, the performance of the German economy grew by 0.9%.
- Hungary’s economic output started dropping at the beginning of year 2012 due to the unfavourable external environment and the low domestic demand. In the past year it moderated by a total 1.7% compared to the last year’s figure, positioning Hungary in the last third of the EU rankings.
- From the expenditure side, despite the weaker performance of our export markets, goods and services exports still have a positive influence on the output of the national economy, which also strengthen our dependency on the trends of the European recovery. The domestic demand – because of the moderating consumption and the low investment activity – did not support the economic growth in 2012.
- On the production side there was a volume decrease in most of the industries in 2012: in the goods producing branches by 4.3% and in the services branches by 0.5%. The production was unfavourably affected by the lower external and the declining internal demand, as well as the dry weather. Only the information and communication section, as well as public administration, education, and health services grew.
- Following the significant fall owing to the global economic crisis the volume of Hungary’s external trade in goods first decreased, then – mainly because of the base effect – expanded at a two-digit rate. From June 2011 the gradual deceleration of the growth rate changed into stagnation in quarter 3 of 2012 and into a decrease in the last quarter. Looking at 2012 as a whole the 0.9% rise of the volume of exports was paralleled by the stagnation of imports. The surplus of external trade was EUR 6823 million in 2012, EUR 238 million less than one year earlier.
- The dynamic expansion of international trade in services, calculated in EUR, observed for earlier years slowed down to 0.9% in case of exports and decreased by 2.7% on the imports side in 2012. As a result of the slighter rise of exports and the fall of imports, the growth of the surplus, having started in 2009, continued: the balance of international trade in services was EUR 3.8 billion in 2012, EUR 352 million more than a year before.
- The current account improved by some EUR 800 million in 2012, a surplus of EUR 1.6 billion was generated over the year. Net external financing capacity, equal to the aggregate balance of the capital account and the current account, was EUR 4.3 billion, and the surplus on the balance of EU transfers was EUR 4.1 billion. At the end of 2012, Hungary’s net external liabilities were EUR 100.2 billion, 5.1% more than a year earlier. Net external debt (not including other capital within direct capital investments) was EUR 42.4 billion, 4.7% less than at the end of 2011.
- The consolidated, cash-based balance of the central sub-system of the general government improved substantially, by HUF 1134 billion in 2012, the deficit coming to HUF 607 billion. The amount of the deficit has been the lowest since 2002, the improvement of the balance occurred compared to a considerable deficit in 2011. In 2012, the level of taxes burdening consumption rose, and the amount of payments by households grew, too, after decreasing at a high rate in 2011. The debt stock of the central government was HUF 20.7 trillion at the end of 2012, 1.1% less than one year before.
- Hungarian Central Statistical Office Report 2012. (Part 1) (budapest2014.wordpress.com)
- Hungary Sheds Bankers’ Shackles (nalonmit.wordpress.com)
- Hungary Sheds Bankers’ Shackles (americanfreepress.net)
- BrianKelly’sBlog – Hungary Sheds Bankers’ Shackles – 26 August 2013 (lucas2012infos.wordpress.com)
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